After the re-election of President George W. Bush, the American public has become more optimistic about the general direction of the country and more supportive of him personally and as president.

Interviews with 1,307 registered voters, conducted from November 3 through 11, showed that 47 percent of the public said the country was “generally going in the right direction,” while 46 percent said “things are seriously off on the wrong track.” The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

In polling of registered voters conducted just before the election, from October 25 through 31, just 40 percent had said right direction, while 53 percent said “wrong track.” Throughout the presidential campaign, the balance on this question was consistently negative, a finding that was widely believed to menace the president’s chances of re-election.

 

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November 1, 2004

Only 62 Percent of Registered Voters Expect Their Votes

 

As of Election Eve, only 62 percent of registered voters are "very confident" that their votes will be accurately counted, the University of Pennsylvania 's National Annenberg Election Survey shows. Another 22 percent said they were "somewhat confident." Voters committed to George W. Bush were much more optimistic than those committed to John Kerry. Seventy-nine percent of Bush voters said they were "very confident" their votes would be accurately counted, compared to just 48 percent of Kerry voters. The polling was conducted among 2,757 registered voters from October 25 through 31. Other relatively high levels of confidence were found among rural voters, with 70 percent saying they were "very confident," and people from the Midwest , those who attend religious services more than once a week, and those with household incomes of $75,000 a year or more, all at 68 percent.

 

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October 29, 2004

Early Voting Already Exceeds Record Levels

 

Early voting is proceeding at a record pace, with 14 percent of registered voters saying they have already voted. That exceeded the 13 percent who told the 2000 Annenberg Survey in post-election interviews that they voted before Election Day. Another 11 percent, in the polling conducted through Wednesday, said they planned to vote before the rest of the country goes to the polls next Tuesday. At this point in the 2000 campaign, 11 percent told Annenberg they had already voted and another 9 percent said they planned to vote early.

 

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October 28, 2004

Terrorism Seen As Most Important Problem by Bush Backers;

October 26, 2004

Committed Kerry Voters More Active Than Bush Backers;

October 23, 2004

Voters Learned Positions on Issues Since Presidential Debates;

Kerry Improves Slightly On Traits

 

The public’s knowledge of the presidential candidates’ positions on issues such as tax cuts and re-importation of drugs from Canada increased after the three presidential debates. There were smaller changes in perceptions of the individual traits of President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry. Kerry gained on such perceptions as being inspiring or a strong leader, but did not overtake Bush. The most substantial amount of learning took place on Kerry’s plan to roll back some recent tax cuts. Prior to the presidential debates which began September 30, polling data collected from September 21 through 26 showed that only 33 percent of registered voters knew that Kerry proposed to eliminate the tax cuts only for those making over $200,000 a year.

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October 22, 2004

Kerry Gains On Economy and Other Domestic Issues;

Bush Stronger On Terrorism

 

Since the presidential debates, John Kerry has emerged with a clear advantage on economic issues among the general public and with political independents in particular, but George W. Bush maintained his edge on terrorism and as Commander-in-Chief. The survey also found higher hopes for Kerry on energy independence and preventing outsourcing of U.S. jobs. More respondents feared Kerry, rather than Bush, would raise taxes. But they worried more about a military draft if Bush was re-elected.

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October 20, 2004

Over One-Fifth of Voters, More Than in 2000, Plan To Vote Early

 

Twenty-two percent of America’s registered voters say they have already voted or plan to vote before Election Day. In a comparable period in 2000, 19 percent of registered voters either planned to vote before Election Day or had already voted.Five percent said they have already cast their ballots, and another 17 percent said they planned to vote by absentee ballot or by going to an early voting station. At this point in 2000, 4 percent had already voted and another 15 percent said they planned to vote early at this point in the campaign"

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October 16, 2004

Service Members, Families Say Pentagon Sent Too Few Troops
To Iraq, Stressed National Guard and Reserves, Should Allow
Photos of Coffins at Dover

Even though they support George W. Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq in general, America’s military service members and their families are convinced that the Administration underestimated the number of troops it needed in Iraq and put too much of a burden on inadequately trained and equipped National Guard and reserve forces. From September 22 through October 5, Annenberg polled 655 adults who have either served on active duty between February and October or who were family members of those who served but were not available to be interviewed. Their answers were compared to the responses of 2,436 adults polled nationally from September 27 through October 3.

View Press Release 181KB PDF

October 15, 2004

Service Men and Women Upbeat on Bush, War In Iraq,
Economy and Intend To Vote

America’s military service men and women and their families are convinced that the country is going in the right direction, like George W. Bush much more than the civilian population does, support the war in Iraq more strongly and are more positive about the economy. From September 22 through October 5, Annenberg polled 655 adults who have either served on active duty between February and October or who were family members of those who served but were not available to be interviewed. Their answers were compared to the responses of 2,436 adults polled nationally from September 27 through October 3.

View Press Release 207KB PDF

October 8, 2004

Majority of 18 To 29 Year Olds Think Bush Favors
Reinstating the Draft

About half of the country’s 18 to 29-year-olds believe that President George W. Bush wants to reinstate the military draft, even though he and his challenger, Senator John F. Kerry have each insisted they oppose the idea. Older respondents were more likely than younger respondents to know that neither Republican candidate President George W. Bush nor Democratic candidate Senator John Kerry favors the draft.

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October 7, 2004

Kerry Gained Favorability after Debate but Bush Is Still
Preferred As Commander-In-Chief

John Kerry goes into Friday’s second presidential debate with more Americans having a favorable opinion of him now than did before his first debate with George W. Bush. But the public still clearly regards Bush as someone they would trust more as commander-in chief of the military and to lead the war on terrorism.Polling of 1,868 registered voters between October 1 and 6 showed that 44 percent had a favorable opinion of Kerry while 40 percent had an unfavorable view. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points. In polling from September 21 through 26, 41 percent viewed Kerry favorably and 42 percent unfavorably.

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October 4, 2004

Public A Bit More Positive on Edwards than Cheney

As Dick Cheney and John Edwards prepare to debate Tuesday in Cleveland, the American public generally and political independents in particular have a more positive view of Edwards than of Cheney. About as many registered voters had a favorable view of Cheney as had an unfavorable one. With the data’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, the 37 percent favorable, 42 percent unfavorable margin was not statistically significant. For Edwards, it was 38 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable. The polling of 1,515 registered voters was conducted from September 29 through Sunday, October 3.

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September 30, 2004

Annenberg Findings on Foreign Policy, Security

These were the findings from polling conducted between September 21 and 26 among 1,492 registered voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three points for the entire sample, and plus or minus four percentage points for Democrats and plus or minus five percentage points for Republicans and independents.

View Press Release 136KB PDF

September 29, 2004

Voters Have Much to Learn From Debates

Many adults in the U.S. misjudge where the presidential candidates stand on important public policy issues, according to recent data collected by the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey. A majority of adults still do not know which presidential candidate favors allowing workers to invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market, which candidate favors eliminating tax breaks for overseas profits of American corporations, or which candidate favors completely eliminating the estate tax. Polling conducted from September 21 through 26 among 1,189 adults showed 64 percent of respondents were able to correctly identify George W. Bush, rather than John Kerry, as favoring laws making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion. Sixty percent recognized that Bush, not Kerry, favors making the recent tax cuts permanent.

View Press Release 190KB PDF

September 27, 2004

New Data on Evangelical and Born-Again Protestant Voters

In July we distributed a table showing, among other things, what percentage of registered voters were evangelical or born-again white Protestants, a large group that is very supportive of President Bush. Journalists looking at particular battleground states have asked if we have data for particular states.

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September 24, 2004

Most Indians Say Name of Washington “Redskins” Is Acceptable
While 9 Percent Call It Offensive

Most American Indians say that calling Washington’s professional football team the “Redskins” does not bother them. Ninety percent of Indians took that position, while 9 percent said they found the name “offensive.” One percent had no answer. The margin of sampling error for those findings was plus or minus two percentage points. Because they make up a very small proportion of the total population, the responses of 768 people who said they were Indians or Native Americans were collected over a very long period of polling, from October 7, 2003 through September 20, 2004. They included Indians from every state except Alaska and Hawaii, where the Annenberg survey does not interview. The question that was put to them was “The professional football team in Washington calls itself the Washington Redskins. As a Native American, do you find that name offensive or doesn’t it bother you?”

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September 21, 2004

Daily Show Viewers Knowledgeable About Presidential Campaign

Viewers of late-night comedy programs, especially The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Comedy Central, are more likely to know the issue positions and backgrounds of presidential candidates than people who do not watch late-night comedy. Polling conducted between July 15 and September 19 among 19,013 adults showed that on a six-item political knowledge test people who did not watch any late-night comedy programs in the past week answered 2.62 items correctly, while viewers of Letterman answered 2.91, viewers of Leno answered 2.95, and viewers of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart answered 3.59 items correctly. That meant there was a difference of 16 percentage points between Daily Show viewers and people who did not watch any late-night programming.

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September 17, 2004

Gender Gap in Political Knowledge Persists In 2004

Men are more likely than women to know the issue positions of the presidential candidates, from their stands on taxes and assault weapons to Medicare. Polling conducted between September 3 and 12 among 1,845 adults showed that on an eight-item political knowledge test, men averaged 4.2 correct answers. Women on average answered 3.6 items correctly on an eight-item political knowledge test – an average difference per question of 7.5 percent.

View Press Release 167KB PDF

September 15, 2004

Bush Makes Slight Gains on Some Measures But Suffers
Among Persuadable Voters

George W. Bush made slight gains from the Republican National Convention on two important comparisons with John Kerry among the general public. But his standing among persuadable voters may be worse now than it was in August. Polling conducted from Friday, September 3, the night after the convention, through Sunday, September 12 showed that 54 percent of all registered voters thought he would do a better job of fighting the war on terrorism than would Kerry, while 36 percent preferred Kerry. In polling from August 9 through 29, the night before the convention began, 50 percent said Bush would do better and 39 percent said Kerry.

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September 10, 2004

Attitudes on Bush's Guard Service

For several months, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey has been asking respondents their view of George W. Bush’s Air National Guard Service. In polling conducted before CBS’ “60 Minutes” reported this week that his commanding officer had written memos saying Bush sought avoid National Guard sessions and his commanding officer and had failed to meet Air Force standards, the Annenberg polling found that 51 percent of registered voters thought he had fulfilled his obligations and 35 percent felt he had not met them.

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September 6, 2004

Two Thirds of Public, One Third of NRA Members Support
Extending Assault Weapons Ban

Sixty-eight percent of the American public wants Congress to extend the ten-year old ban on assault weapons. Congress comes back into session Tuesday with only six days remaining before the ban expires on September 13 and with no plans to consider an extension. Both supporters and opponents of the ban issued last-minute appeals in recent days calling for grass-roots lobbying. Support for extending the 2004 prohibition on manufacturing 19 types of semi-automatic rifles and shotguns and on ammunition clips holding more than ten rounds was also registered by 57 percent of people with a gun in their household and even by 32 percent of members of the National Rifle Association, the politically influential organization which adamantly opposes the ban.

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September 1, 2004

Bush Erases Kerry’s Post-Convention Gains on Optimism,
Inspiration and Values

George W. Bush has erased the modest gains John Kerry made on him after the Democratic National Convention on such traits as optimism, inspiration and sharing Americans’ values. But as the Republican National Convention prepares to nominate Bush tonight for a second term, a wide variety of trait ratings now stand just about where they were before the Democratic convention.In polling conducted from August 9 through 29 among 5,146 registered voters,
50 percent rated Bush favorably and 40 percent rated him unfavorably. From July 5 to 25, the day before the Democratic convention began, 48 percent rated him favorably and 41 percent unfavorably. The margin of sampling error for the August polling was plus or minus one percentage point; for the July data it was plus or minus two points.

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August 29, 2004

Despite Limited Convention Television Coverage,
Public Learned About Campaign from Democrats

Despite minimal network television coverage, the Democratic National Convention increased the public’s knowledge of the positions John Kerry and George W. Bush hold on a range of issues and left 69 percent of the public convinced they knew enough about Kerry to decide how to vote. A sample of 847 adults was interviewed before the convention and again after it, and their answers changed on many questions. Before the convention 33 percent of the panel correctly identified the income group ($200,000 or more) whose taxes Kerry wanted to increase; afterwards 50 percent could. That was the biggest change on an issue, but another message Kerry was trying to get out – that he was a former prosecutor -- also showed a sharp increase, from 48 percent knowing before the convention to 63 percent after it was over.

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August 27, 2004

Pluralities of Public, Independents Believe Bush Campaign
Is Behind Swift Boat Veterans’ Ads

A plurality of Americans believe the Bush campaign is behind the television ads run by critics of John Kerry over his service in Vietnam and his antiwar statements after he returned to the United States. In polling from Monday through Thursday, 46 percent said they believed the Bush campaign was behind the ads, while 37 percent said they believed they were made independently. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points. Belief in Bush campaign backing of the ads increased during the week. On August 23 and 24, when the Kerry campaign was making the accusation, 42 percent said the campaign was behind the ads and 41 percent said they were truly independent. On August 25 and 26, after Benjamin L. Ginsberg resigned as national counsel to the Bush campaign when his connection to the ads’ sponsors was revealed, 50 percent said the campaign was connected and 34 percent said it was not.

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August 26, 2004

Veterans Rate Bush Higher Than Kerry on Many Dimensions,
But Kerry Gained After Convention

America’s military veterans, a distinctly Republican chunk of the electorate, think much more highly of George W. Bush than of John Kerry. But the Democratic convention improved veterans’ overall impression of Kerry, and about as many now view him favorably as think of him unfavorably. Fifty-nine percent of 728 veterans registered to vote and interviewed from August 6 through 24 said they had a favorable opinion of Bush while 32 percent had an unfavorable view. By contrast, 42 percent viewed Kerry favorably and 44 percent unfavorably. The difference between Kerry’s favorable and unfavorable ratings was not statistically significant; the poll’s margin of sampling error was plus or minus four percentage points.

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August 20, 2004

Cable and Talk Radio Boost Public Awareness of Swift Boat Ad

Backed by a small time buy in a few states, a TV advertisement sponsored by a 527 called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth began airing on August 5, 2004. The ad claimed that John Kerry lied to obtain his Viet Nam War medals. A news account in the New York Times indicated that the group intended to spend $500,000 to put the ad on stations in Wisconsin, Ohio, and West Virginia. Though according the article, an aide for the Kerry campaign disputed these figures arguing that the buy "was far smaller, for only $156,000 in seven smallish markets."

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August 9, 2004

Public Favors Stem Cell Research

From July 30 through August 5, 1,345 adults were asked “Do you favor or oppose Federal funding of research on diseases like Alzheimers using stem cells taken from human embryos?” Sixty-four percent said they favored such funding, while 28 percent opposed it. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

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August 6, 2004

After Convention, Kerry Catches Up With Bush on Optimism,
Gains on Values, Inspiration

After the Democratic National Convention, John Kerry gained on George W. Bush when independents compared them on optimism, inspiration, and sharing their values. Polling of 1,646 registered voters conducted from July 30, the day after the convention, through August 5 showed that 42 percent of independents now rate Kerry higher than Bush on optimism. Thirty percent rated Bush higher. In pre-convention polling, from July 5 through 25, Bush had a 41 to 34 percent advantage. Among all respondents, Kerry also gained when respondents rated the two candidates as optimistic, inspiring and sharing values, although the gains were smaller.

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August 3, 2004

Fahrenheit 9/11 Viewers and Limbaugh Listeners
About Equal in Size Even Though They Perceive
Two Different Nations

Michael Moore’s movie, Fahrenheit 9/11, has attracted about as many people as Rush Limbaugh’s radio broadcasts, but the election-year film appears to have hardly changed any minds. Forty-one percent of the Moore movie goers said the picture made them think worse of George W. Bush. But that claim must be treated skeptically because three fifths of the people who said the film made them think less of Bush were Democrats to begin with. While a third of the independents who saw the movie said it made them think worse of Bush, those independents who watched the movie were much more liberal than independents generally and had been three times more likely to back Al Gore than Bush in 2000. Only a handful of Republicans saw the movie; they were too few for their attitudes to be measured with confidence.

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July 28, 2004

Kerry Gains On Bush in Persuadable Voters’ Impressions
Of Him as Caring, Experienced

As Democrats prepare to nominate John Kerry for President tonight, the persuadable voters who are still up for grabs see him as more caring, more knowledgeable, and less reckless, stubborn, or arrogant than George W. Bush. On one of those measures, a key one for Democrats, Kerry’s standing is stronger relative to Bush than it was in early June. Then, 30 percent of persuadables said the term “cares about people like me” fitted Bush better and 37 percent said Kerry. Now 41 percent say Kerry and just 27 percent say Bush. The persuadable voters – those who are either undecided or have a preference between Kerry, Bush or Ralph Nader but say there is a good chance they could change their minds – do give Bush an edge as a strong leader, as optimistic and as steady.

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July 25, 2004

Blacks, Hispanics Resist Republican Appeals
But Conservative White Christians Are Stronger Supporters
Than In 2000

Republicans have failed to make the significant gains they hoped for among minority voters in the last four years, but their core support among evangelical and born-again white Protestants is stronger. As the Democratic National Convention begins, 66 percent of African-American registered voters called themselves Democrats and just 7 percent say they are Republicans, numbers almost unchanged since 2000, when it was 65 to 7 percent. Among registered Hispanics, Democrats now outnumber Republicans 45 to 24 percent, compared to a 39 to 21 percent margin in 2000.

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July 20, 2004

Public Gives Cheney Advantage on Experience but Still Views
Edwards More Favorably

The American people give Dick Cheney a clear advantage on experience over John Edwards, but still have a decidedly more favorable view of the Democratic choice for Vice President than of the Republican incumbent. The polling also showed the public does not think either George W. Bush or John Kerry has a solution for Iraq. On the Cheney-Edwards comparison, when the public was asked to rate Cheney and Edwards as to whether each had the “right kind of experience to be president,” 41 percent of the 2,498 people interviewed from July 9 through 19 rated Cheney higher. Twenty-nine percent rated Edwards higher, and 18 percent rated them equally.

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July 9, 2004

Majority of Americans Think New Iraq Regime Has As Much or More Power Than U.S. Has There,
But Still Doubt Bush Plan

Almost three fifths of the American public believe the new Iraqi government has as much or more power than Americans have there, but about as many still feel that George W. Bush has no clear plan for bringing the situation in Iraq to a successful conclusion, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows. Polling of 2,073 adults from June 28, the day of the official transfer of power, through Thursday night showed that 20 percent of the public believed the new Iraq government would have more power, 39 percent believed it would have about as much power there as the United States, and 31 percent said the United States would have more power there. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points.

View Press Release 170KB PDF

July 6, 2004

Attitudes Toward Edwards Positive, But Half Of Public
Does Not Have Clear View

John Edwards begins his campaign for vice president today with a solidly favorable balance of public opinion behind him, at least among those who have opinions, but half the public has no clear view of him.Thirty-one percent of the public, interviewed from last Thursday through last night, said they had a favorable opinion of him, while 17 percent were unfavorable. Another 29 percent said their view of him was neutral, and 22 percent said they did not know how to rate him. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points. John Kerry, the presumed Democratic nominee who chose Edwards, was viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent. Eighteen percent said their view of him was neutral, and 6 percent said they did not know how to rate him.

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July 2, 2004

Marriage Gap Bigger Than Gender Gap, With Married People More Supportive
Than Singles Are To Bush and Republicans

The marriage gap is bigger than the gender gap on a wide range of political issues, from opinions of George W. Bush and John Kerry to party allegiance or a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage.While the gender gap, or the political differences between men and women, has intrigued politicians and women’s organizations since the early 1980s, the greater differences between married and single people, though first noted at about the same time, have received less attention. But this survey shows that the differences between married men and married women are either slight or statistically insignificant. In contrast, people who do not live with a spouse are considerably more liberal and critical of Bush than are married Americans.

View Press Release 163KB PDF

June 23, 2004

Bush Makes Gains on Personal Traits, Some Issues, With General Public
But is Stable Among Persuadable Voters

In a period marked by his eulogy for Ronald Reagan, UN approval of sovereignty transfer in Iraq while terrorist strikes continued amid reports of good economic news, George W. Bush improved his image with the American people significantly on attributes such as experience, steadiness, caring, knowledgeability, and trustworthiness. But those changes, measured in interviews of 1,431 adults between June 8 and 21, were not repeated among persuadable potential voters in all states, those who are either undecided or say there is a “good chance” they could change their current preference for Bush, John Kerry or Ralph Nader. In that group, his ratings either stayed about the same, or in one case, his rating as a “strong leader,” actually fell.

View Press Release 177KB PDF

June 18, 2004

Hypothetical Showings of Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Dole Suggest
Women’s Chances of Winning the Presidency Are Better
Than Some Polls Say

A woman may not have as tough a time getting elected president as some traditional polling suggests because many people who would prefer not to vote for a woman would actually do so rather than for a candidate of the other party. Polling of 3,572 adults conducted from May 26 through June 10 indicated that if Senator Hillary Clinton were running against President George Bush she would fare no worse than would Senator John Kerry, and Senator Elizabeth Dole would run against Kerry about as strongly as Bush would.

View Press Release 166KB PDF

June 4, 2004

Swing Voters in Swing States Troubled By Iraq, Economy;
Unimpressed With Bush and Kerry

Potential swing voters in swing states – the real target of the presidential campaign these days – are more critical of the economy and the situation in Iraq and less impressed with either George W. Bush or John Kerry than the electorate generally. These persuadable voters in the battleground states – about 11 percent of the nation’s public -- are less conservative and more moderate than other Americans, and less likely to identify with either party. Demographically, they are whiter, less educated, less wealthy and less religious than other Americans.

View Press Release 203KB PDF

May 26, 2004

Kerry’s Standing Improves in Battleground States
After His Positive TV Ads

Since John Kerry began showing positive biographical television ads about himself in early May, he appears to have reversed a slide in public impressions of him in the battleground states.In the 20 states which both presidential campaigns consider tight enough to warrant spending on television advertising, Kerry is now viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent, based on polling of 800 people from May 17 through 23. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

View Press Release 163KB PDF

May 24, 2004

American Public Shifts to View That Prison Guards
Were Following Orders

The American public’s opinion about prisoner abuse in Iraq has shifted dramatically away from the idea that the guards were acting on their own at the Abu Ghraib prison to the belief that they followed orders. In polling from last Monday through Sunday night, 48 percent said the guards were “following orders from their commanders,” while 30 percent said they acted “on their own,” and 9 percent said both were true. From May 6 through 9, just two weeks earlier, 47 percent said they acted on their own, 31 percent said they followed orders and 6 percent said both. In the latest polling, 1,997 people were interviewed and the margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points.

View Press Release 158KB PDF

May 17, 2004

American Public Remains Opposed To Same-Sex Marriages
As They Begin In Massachusetts

As same-sex marriage begins today in Massachusetts, Americans remain opposed to the concept but still dubious about prohibiting it by a constitutional amendment. Interviewing of 3,775 adults from May 3 through 16 showed that 61 percent of the public said they opposed a law that would permit same-sex marriages in their state, while 30 percent said they favored it. Those findings were not significantly different from the last Annenberg measure of the question. February 14 through 23 polling found that 64 percent were opposed to a same-sex marriage law in their state while 30 percent were in favor.

View Press Release 166KB PDF

May 12, 2004

Americans Say They Don’t Learn From Ads But They Believe
Strained Campaign Ads Anyway

Americans may say they don’t trust television commercials, but the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows that again this year, a great many people absorb and believe what they see, no matter how dubious its relation to the truth. From April 15 through May 2, 1,026 adults were interviewed in 18 battleground states where the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been showing commercials since March. In those states, 61 percent of the public believe Bush “favors sending American jobs overseas,” 56 percent believe Kerry “voted for higher taxes 350 times,” and 72 percent say 3 million jobs have been lost in Bush’s presidency. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

View Press Release 139KB PDF

May 10, 2004

Public Believes Prison Guards Were Not Following Orders,
But Pentagon Tried To Cover Up Abuse

The American public does not believe the soldiers who mistreated Iraqi prisoners were following orders, but a narrow majority thinks the Pentagon tried to cover up the abuse. Polling of 1,030 adults from Thursday through Sunday also showed that a large majority of the public does not feel that Donald H. Rumsfeld, the secretary of defense, should resign because of the issue. Forty-seven percent of the public said the soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison in Baghdad acted on their own. Thirty-one percent said they were following orders, and six percent said they were both acting on their own and following orders. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

View Press Release 187KB PDF

May 4, 2004

Opinions of Kerry Decline Nationally, Especially
In Battleground States

Several weeks of general election intensity campaigning have clearly dimmed Senator John F. Kerry’s image with the American people and among potential voters in battleground states. Polling of 2,759 adults from April 15 through May 2 showed that 38 percent had a favorable opinion of Kerry and 33 percent an unfavorable view. That was a turn for the worse from the first two weeks of March, when 40 percent had a favorable opinion and 24 percent an unfavorable view. In both surveys, the margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points.

View Press Release 165KB PDF

May 3, 2004

Young People Watch More Late Night Television

For years political consultants have argued that late night comedy shows play a central role in defining presidents and presidential candidates for the American public, but the biggest audience for those programs comes from those least likely to vote – Americans 18 to 29. Interviews with 26,491 adults from October 30, 2003 through March 19, 2004, showed that people 18 to 29 were less likely to watch network news, cable news or read newspapers than their elders, but more likely to watch late-night comedy. They watched late-night programs an average of 1.2 days a week, compared to 0.7 for those 30-44, and 0.8 for those 45 to 64 or those 65 and older.

View Press Release 134KB PDF

April 28, 2004

Few Americans Think Tax Rate Cuts Reduced
Their April 15 Bill

Nine percent of Americans think they paid less in federal taxes this month because of President Bush’s tax cuts. But only a handful of them, one percent of the public, is a persuadable voter who is not yet firmly committed to either Bush or Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts in the presidential election. Every American who paid federal income taxes saw his or her rates reduced in 2003. But some made more money than in 2002 and paid more in taxes anyway. Moreover, some who actually paid less may have forgotten an advance check those with children received in 2003.

View Press Release 144KB PDF

April 23, 2004

Most of Public Wants the Assault Weapons Ban Extended;
So Do Half of NRA Households

Most Americans, including those who have guns in their homes, want to see the ten-year-old ban on assault weapons extended. And even though the National Rifle Association’s leadership is intensely opposed to renewal, about half of those with an NRA member in their household support continuing the ban.

View Press Release 173KB PDF

April 16, 2004

Dismay Over Iraq Is Increasing;
Public Supports Bush on Staying but Doubts He Has a Plan

The public agrees with President Bush that American troops should be kept in Iraq until a stable government is established, but does not think he has a clear plan for achieving success there. Moreover, majorities now think the situation in Iraq was not worth going to war over and the war has increased, not decreased the threat of terrorism, and a bare majority disapproves of the President’s handling of the situation in Iraq.

View Press Release 165KB PDF

April 9, 2004

Public Considers Bush A Stronger Leader But More Stubborn
While Kerry Is Seen As Less Reckless But Inconsistent

Americans consider President Bush steadier, a stronger leader, more likeable and less likely to bow to political pressure than Senator John F. Kerry. But they consider Kerry more knowledgeable than Bush and less reckless or stubborn, too. In polling conducted between March 21 and April 7, a total of 1,818 respondents were asked to rank Bush and Kerry on 17 different traits, and Bush held statistically significant advantages on seven of them, while Kerry had an advantage on four.

View Press Release 160KB PDF

April 5, 2004

Overall Impressions of Bush and Kerry Hardly Change Despite Early TV Blitz

The first salvoes of Bush and Kerry television advertisements appears to have produced few important changes in public attitudes toward the two candidates. A comparison of national public attitudes toward the two candidates in the first half of March with those in the second half, shows that 40 percent had a favorable view of Senator John F. Kerry in the first half of the month, while 24 percent had an unfavorable view. In the second half of the month, 39 percent had a favorable opinion and 28 percent an unfavorable view. The four-point increase in unfavorable opinions was statistically significant, but not the one-point decrease in favorable opinions.

View Press Release 164KB PDF

March 26, 2004

Public Attitudes About Nader Decline Sharply Since 2000
As He Starts His White House Run

Ralph Nader, whose independent candidacy worries Democrats who think he cost them the White House in 2000, has become distinctly unpopular with the American public which held a balanced view of him four years ago.In 2000, Annenberg polling showed that 24 percent of the public had a favorable view of Nader and 24 percent an unfavorable opinion. In 2004, 21 percent have a favorable view and 37 percent an unfavorable opinion.

View Press Release 158KB PDF

March 19, 2004

Large Majority of Democrats Still Bitter Over 2000

Far from putting the disputed 2000 election behind them, 69 percent of Democrats say Al Gore really won it but was “somehow cheated” out of the White House, and that group provides a core of intense support for Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.That sense of injustice to Gore was shared by 9 percent of Republicans and 37 percent of independents. Overall 38 percent of the public said they thought Gore had been cheated, while 54 percent said he had not.

View Press Release 152KB PDF

March 18, 2004

As Campaigners Cite Hoover and Fonda, Public Does Not Know Who They Are

If Democrats keep running against Herbert Hoover, as they have on and off since 1932, they may have to invest in a substantial educational campaign to make it clear that they are not talking about a former FBI director, a dam on the Colorado River, or vacuum cleaners. Democratic candidates and interest groups frequently charge that President Bush’s Administration is the first since Hoover’s to record a net job loss and comparing him to the President whom Franklin D, Roosevelt defeated in 1932.

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March 17, 2004

A Year after Bombing Began, Public Is Split on Whether Iraq War Was Worth It

A year after the war on Iraq began with overwhelming support from the public, Americans are about evenly split over whether the conflict was worth it, and a majority want to pay less or nothing to rebuild Iraq. Among 2,575 adults interviewed between March 1 and 15, 1,249 were asked, “All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?” Forty-six percent said yes and 49 percent said no. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

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March 15, 2004

Majority Considers Bush Ads’ 9/11 Images “Inappropriate”

A majority of the American public considers it inappropriate for President Bush’s re-election campaign to use images from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in its television commercials, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows. While the heaviest criticism came from committed supporters of John Kerry, there was also significant unhappiness about the ads among voters who have not yet firmly decided for whom to vote.

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March 2, 2004

Public’s Attitudes Toward Cheney Drift Downward
As Some Republican Voters Want Him Replaced

Vice President Cheney’s popularity has declined fairly steadily since October, and more than one fourth of Republican primary voters think President Bush should choose a new running mate. In October, 43 percent of the public had a favorable opinion of Cheney and 26 percent had an unfavorable view. But in the last two weeks of February, from the 16th through the 29th, 33 percent had a favorable opinion and 36 percent an unfavorable view, a drop of ten percentage points. On both occasions the margin of sampling error was plus or minus two percentage points.

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View Fresh Data 165KB PDF 03/16/04

February 27, 2004

About One Third of Super Tuesday Democratic Voters
Say They Know Enough to Make an Informed Choice

With three days to go until the Super Tuesday primaries when Democrats will elect 1,151 delegates in ten states, just over a third of registered voters in those states who say they intend to vote in Democratic primaries say they have learned enough about the candidates to make an informed choice. That share is no higher than the percentage – also 36 percent - who say they know enough to choose in the 21 states which choose later.

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February 20, 2004

Kerry’s Anti-Vietnam War Activity and Bush’s National Guard Service Bother, Mostly,
Americans Who Think Badly of Them Already

Senator John Kerry’s antiwar activities and President Bush’s service in the Texas Air National Guard matter chiefly to Americans who already appear to have made up their minds against the particular candidate. Seventeen percent of the public said they disapproved of Kerry’s antiwar actions, and that belief would matter a “great deal” to them in deciding how to vote. Twelve percent of the public said Bush had not fulfilled his obligations and that belief would matter a “great deal” to their vote.

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February 9, 2004

American Public Opposes Both Same-Sex Marriages and
Constitutional Amendment to Prohibit Them

In polling conducted after Wednesday’s decision by the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court telling the state’s legislature it must legalize same-sex marriages and not try to compromise by allowing civil unions, 60 percent of the public nationally said they opposed any such law in their states, while 31 percent said they would favor one.

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View Fresh Data 103KB PDF 2/24/04

February 7, 2004

Approval Of Bush Declines During January

Public approval of President Bush’s handling of his job declined in January, as a small boost after the State of the Union address was followed by a sharp decline following negative reports from Iraq.

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January 30, 2004

New Hampshire Voters Often Skipped Political Ads, But Few Used New Technology To Avoid Them

When New Hampshire voters wanted to avoid political commercials this week, few of them used the new digital recording systems to do so. Instead they did it the old fashioned-way, by changing channels or turning away.

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January 29, 2004

New Hampshire Voters Knew Backgrounds of Candidates

New Hampshire’s Democratic primary voters knew the backgrounds of the major presidential candidates well and gained a lower but significant level of knowledge about issue differences among them. But nationally, prospective Democratic voters know far less.

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See New Data 02-06-04 110KB PDF

January 26, 2004

Independents Will Cast Nearly Half the Votes in New Hampshire Primary

Polling from Jan. 8 through 25 of 1,027 registered voters who said they planned to vote in the primary found that 49 percent considered themselves Democrats and 46 percent thought of themselves as independents.

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January 23, 2004

New Hampshire Democratic Voters Reflect Attitudes of Democrats Elsewhere

Prospective voters in New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary are more negative toward President Bush than Democratic primary voters elsewhere. But on a variety of issues from the economy to the war in Iraq their opinions are similar to those of Democratic primary voters in other states.

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January 17, 2004

Away From Early Test States of Iowa and New Hampshire, Democratic Voters Say They Don’t Know Enough About Candidates To Choose Among Them

With Monday’s Iowa caucuses to be followed by eight other delegate contests in the next 15 days, events that could leave the Democratic nomination settled by early February, most Democrats nationally say they do not know enough about the candidates. Across the country, four fifths of registered voters who want to take part in Democratic primaries or caucuses say they do not know enough about the candidates to make an informed choice, according to the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey.

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January 8, 2004

Bush Enters Election Year with His Approval Higher As Support on Iraq Increases

President Bush enters the election year with the public increasingly cheerful about the general situation in the country, and with approval of his handling of the Presidency and particularly terrorism and Iraq up markedly from where they stood last fall.
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January 6, 2004

Public Gives Increased Credit to Bush on Economy, But Support Remains Soft

Public perceptions of the nation’s economy and the Bush Administration’s handling of it have been improving in recent weeks but are still less than robustthe University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows.Traditionally, attitudes about the economy have been major factors in whether an incumbent president wins re-election or not. In polling conducted since mid-December, 71 percent of registered voters said the economy would be more important to their vote than the situation in Iraq, which was cited by 14 percent. That had not really changed much all fall

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December 27, 2003

Public initially supports Medicare law; But quickly shows its doubts

The American public starts out strongly in favor of the new Medicare prescription drug law, but becomes very uncertain when presented with arguments about it sure to be raised in the coming political campaign, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows.

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View Fresh Data 177KB PDF 03/16/04

December 24, 2003

Party Identification: The Gap Disappears.

Republicans have just about caught up with Democrats in party identification among registered voters. The University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey, with interviews of 8,091 registered voters this fall, finds that 33.7 percent call themselves Democrats and 32.5 percent say they are Republicans. That gap is well within the survey’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus one percentage point.

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December 22, 2003

Bush Gains After Capture Of Saddam Hussein Level Off;
While Staying Strong, Especially Among Independents

President Bush’s sharp gains in support following the capture of Saddam Hussein have settled at about the levels recorded in the first three days after the Iraqi president was seized by American troops. Approval of his handling of his job as President stood at 57 percent from December 9 through 13, the five days preceding the capture. In the next three days, December 14 through 16, it jumped to 64 percent. In the last five days, from December 17 through 21, it stood at 62 percent.

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December 2, 2003

Bush Popularity Surges on Several Levels after Thanksgiving

President Bush appears to have received a substantial immediate boost in his popularity since Thanksgiving Day. The improvement came in the wake of his surprise visit to American troops in Baghdad and continuing good economic news, along with the passage of the Medicare prescription drug bill which he strongly supported.

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November 25, 2003

Public Favors Civil Unions But Still Opposes Same-Sex Marriages

While a majority of the American people still opposes same-sex marriages, many of them
would accept civil unions and 56 percent of the public support either same-sex marriages
or civil unions, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey
shows.
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View 12/24/03 update

November 24, 2003

Public Split on Medicare Bill, But Elderly Are Opposed

The American Public is about evenly split on the Medicare legislation before the Senate today, but those old enough to qualify for Medicare oppose it, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows. Among 860 adults interviewed from last Wednesday through Sunday night, 40 percent said the bill should be passed and 42 percent said it should not. The others had no opinion. With the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, the difference between 40 and 42 was not statistically significant. But among respondents 65 and older, only 33 percent wanted the bill passed and 49 percent said it
should not be passed.

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November 10, 2003

Annenberg Study Shows Support for Iraq War Drops;
Public Splits Evenly on Whether it was "Worth It"

The American public is now evenly split on whether the war in Iraq was worth it, the
National Annenberg Election Survey shows. In October, when asked “All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over, or not?”, Americans polled nationwide replied that it was worth it, by 52 percent to 43 percent. But from November 1 through November 9, in a period when news of American helicopters being shot down gained wide attention, 48 percent said it was worth it, but 49 percent said it was not. The one percentage point difference was not statistically significant.

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November 3, 2003

Annenberg Study Shows Elderly Voters, a Force in Iowa
Follow Politics More Closely than Younger People

Elderly Americans, an intensively courted swing voting force, are more attentive to politics than younger people and claim higher rates of voting, but are less enthusiastic about increased federal spending on schools or allowing younger workers to put some of their Social Security taxes into the stock market.

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October 4, 2003

Annenberg Election Study Measures Union Votes, Shows Labor Ties Win White Votes for Democrats

The National Annenberg Election Survey showed that in 2000, voters from union households preferred Al Gore to George W. Bush by 58 to 36 percent, and white voters from union households gave him a 55 to 40 percent lead. For more information see the press release.

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September 2, 2003

Annenberg Study Shows Political Differences Among Hispanics of Various Heritages

As both major political parties intensify their efforts to win votes from Hispanic voters, the nation's largest minority, new poll findings highlight the political differences and similarities among Hispanics of various heritages, with only those of Cuban backgrounds tilting toward Republicans.

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July 15, 2003

Adam Clymer Joins PENN's Annenberg Public Policy Center

Former New York Times Correspondent to Serve as Washington Director of the National Annenberg Election Survey.

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